Finding the Key Horse For Betting Profits
Boxing exotic bets can lead to financial ruin unless you get some pretty big payoffs. Using a key horse or horses in exotics, like quinellas, exactas, trifectas, and superfectas, can help to bring the cost down and still provide many opportunities to win.
The problem, of course, is finding the right horse or horses to key on in your exotic bets. That often becomes a situational handicapping problem. Some good handicappers have figured out that certain horses in certain situations are very reliable and will look for those situations and then structure a bet around it.
One such classic situation is the lone early speed in a race. These horses almost always wind up in the first or second spot. But because this is such a widely recognized handicapping situation, they are always bet down to ridiculously low odds, preventing any possibility for real profits.
Another such situation that is not as well known but also proves useful, is the class drop early speed angle. A horse with a significant class drop who flashed early speed and ran within two lengths of the leader at the half mile call in its last race, often finishes first or second as well. The bias against so called, “quitters,” often prevents many bettors from backing such a horse so it sometimes presents an advantageous situation.
The most important consideration in any of these cases, obviously, is risk versus reward, or in other words, has the crowd driven the price down so far on the exotics that you can’t make money on the deal. In order to answer that question you’ll have to have some experience and put it to good use.
I like to keep notes on races and look for a statistical situation in a horses past performances that indicates consistency. The first place to look, obviously, is the horse’s records of wins, places, and shows in its stats. If it is first or second in enough of its races, in other words, how many times it is part of the quinella and exacta, then it may be a good key horse.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.